Company Reports

Rio Tinto's 2026 third-quarter performance across major businesses is satisfactory. Its share of Pilbara iron ore shipments is up 4% from a year ago, to 74 million metric tons. But copper production of 166,000 metric tons is down 5%, and aluminum is also down 2%, to 842,000 metric tons.

Copper trades near historical highs at about USD 6.50 per pound, up 10% since our July 2026 update, given mine supply disruptions and tariff-related trade distortions. Zinc and aluminum prices are also stronger, though near-term iron ore futures are little changed.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lithium, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt, diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The firm’s largest customer by far is China, with about 60% of sales in 2025. We think the outlook is for earnings to decline, with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly iron ore, which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.

Rio Tinto’s interim 2026 underlying NPAT is 43% up on a year ago, to USD 6.9 billion or USD 4.21 per share, due to higher copper and aluminum prices. It declared a USD 2.11 fully franked interim dividend, also up 43% on an unchanged 50% payout ratio, at the midpoint of its 40% to 60% target range.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lithium, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt, diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The firm’s largest customer by far is China, with about 60% of sales in 2025. We think the outlook is for earnings to decline, with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly iron ore, which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.

Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore sales of 72 million metric tons in the second quarter are up 6% on the same quarter of 2025. Primary aluminum production of 840,000 metric tons is flat, but copper production is down 9%, to 180,000 metric tons.

The iron ore price continues to trade in a narrow range, with spot of around USD 100 per metric ton flat on a quarter ago as Chinese imports remain strong despite falling steel production. The copper price is also broadly unchanged, trading around USD 6 per pound, near historical highs.

Rio Tinto's share of first-quarter Pilbara iron ore sales volumes is 61 million metric tons, similar to a year ago but 7 million less than it produced as storms affected exports. Copper production is 3% higher, while aluminum volumes are flat.

The iron ore price is broadly flat compared with last quarter. While China's steel production in the first quarter of 2026 is down 5% year on year to about 250 million metric tons, its iron ore imports are up 11% to around 315 million metric tons.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lithium, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt, diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The firm’s largest customer by far is China, with about 60% of sales in 2025. We think the outlook is for earnings to decline, with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly iron ore, which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.

Rio Tinto’s 2025 underlying NPAT is stable on 2024, at around USD 10.9 billion or USD 6.69 per share. The USD 2.54 fully franked final dividend to be paid in April is up 13% on a year ago, but total dividends of USD 4.02 are also flat, with the payout again at the top of its 40% to 60% target range.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, lithium, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt, diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The firm’s largest customer by far is China, with about 60% of sales in 2025. We think the outlook is for earnings to decline, with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly iron ore, which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.

After engaging in merger talks over the past month, Rio Tinto announced that it does not intend to make a firm offer for Glencore. In response, Rio's Australian-listed shares are unchanged at the time of writing, while Glencore shares closed 7% lower in London overnight.

Rio Tinto's iron ore business finished 2025 strongly, with its share of fourth-quarter Pilbara iron ore volumes up 9% on last year, to 79 million metric tons. However, the 279 million total for 2025 is in line with 2024. Fourth-quarter copper and aluminum volumes are also similar to a year ago.

The iron ore price is up on last quarter as China's imports remain strong despite its steel production falling below 1 billion metric tons in 2025 for the first time since 2019. Its anti-involution campaign is reducing overcapacity, mainly via the closure of smaller, less efficient steelmakers.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt and diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The company’s largest customer by far is China, accounting for about 60% of sales in 2024. We think the outlook is for earnings to materially decline with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly for iron ore which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.

Rio and Glencore are again discussing a potential combination, including the possible acquisition by Rio of some or all of Glencore's business via an all-share merger. But details are scarce. Rio has not yet made a firm offer to Glencore, and no deal is agreed.

Rio Tinto's share of September-quarter Pilbara iron ore volumes of 71 million metric tons—and 200 million metric tons so far this year—are slightly down on last year. But copper and aluminum volumes for the quarter and year to date are moderately higher than the same periods of 2024.

The iron ore price has shrugged off re-escalation of the trade war between the United States and China, though copper is down moderately in response. Both are up about 10% since the last quarterly update of our assumed commodity prices.

Rio Tinto is one of the world’s largest miners with operations in iron ore, aluminum (including bauxite and alumina), copper, and minerals (mineral sands, borates, salt and diamonds). Commodity demand is tied to global economic growth, China’s in particular. Rio Tinto benefited greatly from the China boom over the past two decades. The company’s largest customer by far is China, accounting for about 60% of sales in 2024. We think the outlook is for earnings to materially decline with demand for many commodities likely to soften with the end of the China boom, particularly for iron ore which has disproportionately benefited from the boom in infrastructure and real estate investment.