Company Reports

We add Glencore's secondary listing on the ASX to our coverage of its primary listing in London. It is a large thermal and metallurgical coal miner, with its marketing and copper divisions being other major businesses. We also update our coal miner fair values for our latest assumed coal prices.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2031, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Whitehaven's fiscal 2026 adjusted net profit after tax of AUD 230 million, or AUD 0.28 per share, was down 30% on last year. A lower average realized coal price and foreign exchange were headwinds on broadly flat sales volumes, partly offset by more volumes from its lower-cost New South Wales mines.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2031, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

We have revised our midcycle coal prices. Inflation has recently pushed up and steepened cost curves. Higher royalties in Queensland—the world’s largest metallurgical coal exporter—also support prices and disincentivize investing in new supply.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

New Hope's first-half adjusted EBITDA of AUD 215 million is down 58% on a year ago, with lower thermal coal prices the main driver. The interim dividend of AUD 10 cents per share is also down, by 47%. However, the Iran war is likely to drive higher earnings for it and our other coal mining coverage.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Whitehaven Coal's fiscal 2026 first-half adjusted EBITDA halved to AUD 450 million as thermal and metallurgical coal prices fell year on year. It declared a AUD 4 cent per share fully franked dividend, down from AUD 9 cents a year ago, and plans to repurchase shares worth an equivalent amount.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Base metals prices have risen strongly since last quarter, with copper and aluminum driven by supply concerns and optimism over rising demand for use in decarbonization and electrification. Metallurgical coal and rare earths prices are also higher, but thermal coal and minerals sands are weaker.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Thermal and metallurgical coal prices are in the doldrums due to slower economic growth and energy demand, and softer steelmaking in China, respectively. With the supply of both types of coal solid, higher-cost producers are starting to reduce or cease production, with some going out of business.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Whitehaven's fiscal 2025 adjusted NPAT is down 57% on last year, to AUD 319 million or AUD 39 cps. A full year's ownership of Blackwater and Daunia saw volumes up 61%, offsetting lower coal prices and higher unit cash costs. But the resulting higher depreciation and interest costs drove the decline.

Whitehaven Coal offers exposure to global energy and steel demand via thermal and metallurgical coal production. Its mines are in New South Wales and Queensland. Salable coal production expanded from 10 million metric tons in fiscal 2014 to about 14 million metric tons in fiscal 2022, largely due to the ramp-up of Maules Creek and the expansion of the Narrabri mine. It purchased the Blackwater and Daunia metallurgical coal mines in Queensland from BHP and Mitsubishi in April 2024, but it sold a 30% stake in Blackwater to two Japanese steelmakers in March 2025. Equity output is expected to grow to 31 million metric tons by fiscal 2030, split roughly 60% coking coal and 40% thermal coal.

Shares of our iron ore, base metals, coal, and mineral sands miners have risen on last quarter after the shock of April 2, 2025 tariffs. With China driving demand for most commodities, investors appear to have concluded that tariffs wont materially weaken growth and commodity demand.

Demand from China has been the main driver of rising commodity prices in the past two decades. More recently, gold is close to historical highs on safe-haven demand. However, driven by weak China steel end-user demand and slower global growth, most other commodity prices have fallen.

Gold is higher in the March quarter as worries over tariffs affecting economic growth see a flight to safety. Despite likely slower global growth, copper is up as investors try to get ahead of potential tariffs on US copper imports. Iron ore is flat, while metallurgical and thermal coal are down.

Higher US tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and recession, reducing near-term commodity demand. Shares of our nongold mining coverage are materially lower on last quarter, led by base metals and coal miners.