Company Reports

We are transferring coverage of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, or MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, or SMFG, Mizuho Financial Group, and Resona Group.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and midsize enterprises rather than large corporate clients. We expect this exposure to help SMFG benefit from the rising interest rates and price reflation in Japan that are leading to rising property values and increased demand for mortgages. Overall, we expect Bank of Japan policy rates to rise through 2027, and stabilize at 2.0%.

In Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending March 2027), net income grew 33% year on year to JPY 501 billion, driven by 26% growth in net interest income and 19% growth in net fee income.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and midsize enterprises rather than large corporate clients. We expect this exposure to help SMFG benefit from the rising interest rates and price reflation in Japan that are leading to rising property values and increased demand for mortgages.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's fiscal 2025 net income grew 34% to JPY 1,583 billion, driven by a rise in net interest margin and growth in noninterest income. The group is guiding for net income to increase 7% to JPY 1,700 billion in fiscal 2026. Shares fell 3% following the results.

SMFG's December-quarter net income of JPY 461 million is down 18% quarter on quarter, but cumulative nine-month profit makes up 93% of the bank's JPY 1.5 trillion profit guidance for the year ending March 2026. This implies that full-year March 2026 profit should exceed guidance.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.3% share of domestic loans and 9.2% of deposits as of March 2025, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

Japan's big three banks, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, all posted September-quarter earnings that led to cumulative six-month performance making up over 60% of their full-year targets. All three have raised their full-year guidance and share buybacks.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.3% share of domestic loans and 9.2% of deposits as of March 2025, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

Four Japanese banks—Mizuho, Resona, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group—announced results for the first quarter of their fiscal years ended March 2026. Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, will report on Aug. 4.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group reported net income of JPY 1.18 trillion for the fiscal year ended March 2025 and forecasts JPY 1.3 trillion for the current year.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.2% share of domestic loans and 9.0% of deposits as of March 2024, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.2% share of domestic loans and 9.0% of deposits as of March 2024, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

We adjust our Morningstar Uncertainty Ratings for 14 of the 16 Asia, excluding China, stocks we cover after US President Donald Trump announced much more severe tariffs on imports than we or the market were expecting, raising uncertainty over future economic conditions across Asia.

Five major Japanese banks reported aggregate earnings of JPY 4.14 trillion for the nine months from April to December 2024, reaching over 99% of their full-year guidance with three months remaining.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.50% from 0.25%, marking the highest level since 2008, as the country’s persistent deflation shifts toward moderate inflation.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.2% share of domestic loans and 9.0% of deposits as of March 2024, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group reported interim earnings of JPY 725 billion (68% of its guidance of JPY 1.06 trillion for the year ending March 2025), raised earnings guidance to JPY 1.16 trillion and its dividend plan by 9%, and announced a JPY 150 billion buyback.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, with a 7.2% share of domestic loans and 9.0% of deposits as of March 2024, is one of Japan’s Big Three banking groups. Compared with its two megabank rivals, SMFG has a greater focus on retail customers and small and medium-size enterprises rather than large corporate clients. This has given it a higher average asset yield in Japan, but rival Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to deliver slightly higher returns on total assets and returns on equity than SMFG since MUFG sold off its underperforming Union Bank of California in 2022. Improvements at the third Japanese megabank Mizuho also diminish the gap in profitability that had made SMFG a preferred sector holding for some investors until the pandemic.

We transfer five Japanese banks to a new coverage analyst with minor tweaks to our earnings forecasts that do not change our fair value estimates for the Tokyo-listed shares. Our fair value estimates for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's, or MUFG, and Mizuho Financial Group's ADRs rise by 9% each to $12.25 and $4.61, respectively, due to 9% appreciation in the Japanese yen against the US dollar.