Company Reports

Moncler reported a sequential deceleration in organic sales for the third quarter, with top-line growth down 1% year over year, roughly in line with FactSet consensus. Shares were flat at market open on Oct. 22.

Moncler delivered 9% constant-currency sales growth in the first half, with second-quarter growth of 3% for the Moncler brand and 11% for Stone Island. Profitability developed positively on the back of solid gross margin and operating leverage, leading to a 70-basis-point increase in EBIT margin.

Moncler saw a solid sequential acceleration of growth in the first quarter with revenue up 12% at constant exchange rates (Moncler brand delivered 6% growth in the fourth quarter). Acceleration was led by Asia.

Moncler’s leadership position in a growing and conspicuous down jacket category, strong pricing power, and control over distribution should allow the company to generate economic profits over the medium to long term, granting it a narrow moat.

Luxury sector shares were down by 1%-7% on March 2 following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran's retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases across the Middle East (United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain).

In fiscal 2025, Moncler saw 3% organic sales growth, driven by strong performance in Americas and Asia. However, group EBIT fell slightly with operating margins contracting by 30 basis points to 29.2% due to higher selling expenses.

Moncler’s leadership position in a growing and conspicuous down jacket category, strong pricing power, and control over distribution should allow the company to generate economic profits over the medium to long term, granting it a narrow moat.

For its third quarter, Moncler reported a 1% constant-currency revenue drop for its namesake brand and a flat constant-currency performance for Stone Island. This was broadly in line with the trends in the first half of the year, with little improvement in contrast to peers, sending shares lower.

Moncler reported weak results for the second quarter, with sales down 1% year over year and missing the consensus estimate compiled by FactSet. The operating margin for the first half of the year was 2.7% lower compared with last year. The stock is down 4% on the market open on July 24, 2025.

Moncler’s leadership position in a growing and conspicuous down jacket category, strong pricing power, and control over distribution should allow the company to generate economic profits over the medium to long term, granting it a narrow moat.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate for narrow-moat Moncler as we update our model, as the company reported rather resilient first-quarter revenue. Shares look somewhat overvalued.

Moncler’s leadership position in a growing and conspicuous down jacket category, strong pricing power, and control over distribution should allow the company to generate economic profits over the medium to long term, granting it a narrow moat.

We are maintaining our fair value estimates for stocks in our luxury coverage following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump. Tariffs of 20% on the European Union, 10% on the UK, and 31% on imports from Switzerland are having the most impact on our coverage (as well as 36% tariffs on Thailand for Pandora, where most of its manufacturing takes place). Americans account for around 30% of global luxury consumption and sales exposures in the Americas for companies under our coverage range from the midteens to high 30s. Moncler, Prada, and Swatch are least exposed; EssilorLuxottica, Brunello Cucinelli, and Pandora are most exposed.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 47.50 for narrow-moat Moncler, after the company delivered full-year results largely in line with our estimates. After a strong recent rally, shares look somewhat overvalued to us.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate for Moncler after slightly reducing our forecasts for 2024 revenue and profitability because of weakening performance in the third quarter. Our long-term assumptions are intact, and we believe shares are slightly overvalued at current levels.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 47.50 for narrow-moat Moncler as the company delivered a resilient performance in the first half despite a broad industry slowdown. We see shares as somewhat expensive at current levels.

Moncler’s leadership position in a growing and conspicuous down jacket category, strong pricing power, and control over distribution should allow the company to generate economic profits over the medium to long term, granting it a narrow moat.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 47.50 for narrow-moat Moncler as the company reported strong first-quarter revenue trends, especially for its core Moncler brand, defying the industry slowdown. Still, at 27 times forward consensus earnings, shares look expensive.

We are maintaining our fair value estimate of EUR 47.50 for narrow-moat Moncler as the company reported full-year sales and profits slightly ahead of our expectations on the back of a strong fourth quarter.