Morningstar Runs the Numbers

Inspired by Harper's Index (with a tip of the hat to FiveThirtyEight's Significant Digits blog), Morningstar Runs the Numbers uses a numbers-based approach to highlight recent Morningstar research, along with some outside news stories.

1 Million Barrels Per Day OPEC members tentatively agreed to a production cut this week that, if met, could lead to production nearly 1 million barrels per day below Morningstar's 2016 forecast. Still, our energy team thinks this could end up being a nonevent. Allen Good pointed out in a note that there are challenges in reaching a formal agreement and:

The biggest risk factor, however, remains the potency of U.S. shale. We expect any OPEC production cut and subsequent price response to be met with an acceleration of U.S. activity.

29 States With half of workers unable to access workplace retirement plans, at least 29 states are now weighing options for how to expand savings vehicles. Director of policy research Aron Szapiro thinks these plans are well-intentioned but that none will be able to fully fill in the gap:

State efforts to increase retirement security may spur more federal action and new laws. But none of the existing vehicles that states are trying to leverage is perfect. The easiest approach--automatic IRAs--provides the least adequate coverage. The more complex approaches--promoting SIMPLE IRAs, setting up MEPs--may well still be too complex for small businesses to find appealing.

6.10%

John Rekenthaler looked at mutual funds that try to invest like Warren Buffett this week, and found that they

. Over the last 10 years, Buffett-style funds gained 6.10% on an annualized basis versus 8.91% for

30% Latin America stock is up over 30% in the third quarter as Brazilian stocks rallied. Gregg Wolper looks at why:

The huge rally in Brazil's stock market and currency fueled gains for many funds bold enough to own the right stocks in that country. That might seem puzzling; Brazil's economic difficulties and corruption concerns haven't improved much since those issues helped drive that country's market and currency way down in 2015. But a perceived resolution of the country's political crisis, with the embattled president being impeached and eventually replaced, seems to have calmed global investors to some degree.

$105 Million

While such move will improve margins, impact of the improvement will be minimal for now as BlackBerry's hardware business was nearly breakeven. Assuming that BlackBerry can run a leaner operation without the hardware business, combined with continuing growth in high-margin software and services revenue, we increased our fair value estimate of this no-moat name to $8.50 from $8.00.

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