Smart Investor: Next Drivers for Stocks, Risks for Index Investors, and Economic Outlook
We wrap up our coverage of the markets and the week.
Interest Rates
More on Interest Rates
What’s Next for Stocks After the Fed Rate Hike
Crosscurrents include the AI infrastructure boom and strong earnings, along with high oil prices, rising interest rates, and AI safety concerns.
What’s Ahead in 2027 and Beyond for Inflation, Fed Rate Cuts, and More
Rate hikes this year will give way to large rate cuts in 2027 and 2028.
Warsh Pounds the Table on Inflation Fight, but We See Rate Cuts in 2027
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years.
With Inflation Elevated, Federal Reserve Hikes Interest Rates
Price pressures have been running hotter than the Fed’s target for more than five years.
AI Has Yet to Bite the Job Market
That’s kept the labor market in good shape, helping put Fed interest rate hikes back on the agenda.
Warsh’s Communications Policy Faces Its First Big Test
With the Federal Reserve widely expected to raise interest rates Wednesday, Warsh’s minimalist approach to discussing rate decisions will be in the spotlight.
Why the Odds of a Fed Interest Rate Hike Just Shot Higher
Sticky inflation data is strengthening the case for tighter policy.
What’s Happening in the Markets This Week
A pivotal Fed meeting on deck.
Bank of Japan Outlook: Rate Hike Likely to Support Yen
We see the Bank of Japan on a gradual path toward higher interest rates to defend the yen.
ECB Hikes Rates and Raises Both Inflation and Growth Forecasts
While the increase was expected, the central bank’s comments and updated forecasts have boosted expectations for further rate hikes this year.
August CPI Seen Cooling, but Will It Prevent a Fed Rate Hike?
Forecasts center on moderating inflation, but a hotter-than-expected CPI report could trigger the first interest rate hike since 2023.
Don’t Panic About a Bond Market Selloff. It Could Be a Sign of Economic Strength
But if you are worried about the US debt, there may be a better route than gold’s ‘debasement’ trade.
Markets Brief: About That Stock Market Broadening—Plus, the Robots Are Coming
Is the rally still all about tech stocks? And what this week’s CPI might, or might not, mean for Fed rate hikes.
August Jobs Report Seen Showing Modest Bounce in a Slow Hiring Market
Barring a surprise, the Fed rate hike outlook is seen hinging on inflation data.
Global Bond Selloff Extends as Rate Hike Expectations Grow
The spike in borrowing costs comes as the latest flare-up in the US-Iran war has renewed fears of higher inflation.
Warsh Sounds Hawkish, but Will There Be a September Rate Hike?
The new Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech appeared focused on strengthening his anti-inflation credentials, economists say.
The Labor Market Is Weaker Than the Bond Market Thinks
Investors are focusing too much on the recent dip in unemployment, while other data show continued softness.
Will the ECB Raise Interest Rates Again in 2026, but Cut Them in 2027?
Markets almost unanimously expect another ECB rate hike in September.
Surprising July Jobs Report Muddies the Economic Picture
With hiring data and the unemployment rate pointing in opposite directions, the Fed is seen as able to wait on rate hikes, for now.
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